Roger Arnold--
Daily Observations August 7, 2003 One Day left for the 5.25% 30 year fixed rate !

If you procrastinated and thought you missed the refinance opportunity you have one more chance. But you have to act fast. At 5.25% this loan rate is over one percentage point below comparable 30 year fixed rates available elsewhere and is the lowest rate available anywhere that I am aware of. But it will only be available for loan applications that have been submitted and accepted by noon eastern time Friday August 8, 2003.

In order to apply go to: https://secure.web-loans.com/loancenter/apply/default.asp?t=8%2F7%2F2003+1%3A23%3A05+PM

or go to: www.myhomelender.com and click on apply for a mortgage in the upper left hand side of the fornt page.

Read below for qualifying details.

This is the loan that we have discussed over the last 90 days. It is now available at 5.25%, but only until Noon eastern time Friday August 8, 2003.

In order to qualify you must agree not to refinance or pay the loan off for 3 years.

Origination fee is 1.5% plus $676 for all loan amounts between $150,000 and $500,000. I believe this is the single best loan available in the US today and I strongly urge you to consider it.


The offered loan rate will increase for any loan applications submitted and accepted after noon eastern time Friday August 8, 2003. In other words this is a race against the clock. If you want the loan you need to apply ASAP.

I will discuss this on the air on Friday. If you have any questions feel free to contact me directly at roger@myhomelender.com but not until you have completed the loan application on line.

Please feel free to forward this offer to your family, friends or associates.

This program is designed to be used for both purchasing and refinancing your home. It may also be used for vacation properties or rental properties but not for any commercial properties.

NOT AVAILABLE IN TEXAS but is in all other states.

Minimum loan amount is $150,000. Maximum for this program is $500,000

The equity in the home for a refinance or the downpayment for a purchase must be 30% or more.

Credit scores must be 720 or higher.

The loan can still be done at a substantial discount if the equity is less than 30% or the credit score is below 720.

Now, If all of the criteria above are met the loan can be priced at 5.25%.

There will also be restrictions by state and local regulations.

What makes this possible is the addition of a prepayment penalty. The loan carries a penalty if it is paid off within 3 years.

For example, if you refinance the loan in the first year you will have to pay a penalty to the lender of 3% of the original loan amount. If you refinance or pay the loan off by way of selling the home during months 13-24 you will have to pay a fee of 2% of the original loan amount. And during the third year it is a 1% fee.

However, if you hold the loan for at least 3 years you will not have to pay any fee or penalty and may sell the home or refinance at any time after that.

If you take the rate at 5.25% you would have to see 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates get to 4% or less before it would be conceivable for you to refinance anyway. And, the probability of that occurring within the next 3 years is so low its not even worth considering.

So, if you want it I would jump on it immediately. You can expedite your loan request by filling out the application at

https://secure.web-loans.com/loancenter/apply/default.asp?t=8%2F7%2F2003+1%3A23%3A05+PM

If you have already applied please send me an e-mail to verify your lock is in. Please include phone numbers where you can be reached.

The on line application site is fully secure. You can also call me at 1 800 658 2813 or send me an e-mail at roger@myhomelender.com

But keep in mind that responses will all first be received by those having filled out the loan application on line. Also, make sure that if you apply on line that you do so with as much detail as possible. It will help ensure that your application is moved more quickly through the system.


Credit Spreads

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=sp/Page/IndicesCreditPg&r;=1&b;=4&s;=4&ig;=56&i;=

PAR Mortgage Rates

SPECIAL LOAN STILL AVAILABLE! requires agreement not to refinance for 3 years

The 30 year fixed at 5.25% for loans between $150,000 and $322,700

The 30 year fixed JUMBO at 5.4% for loans between $322,701 and $500,000

45 Day Lock Pricing - minimum loan amount $150,000

Conforming Jumbo
Secondary Market $322,700 or less $322,701 or more

30 Year Fixed 6.250% 6.25%
20 Year Fixed 6.375%
15 Year Fixed 5.500% 5.750%
10 Year Fixed 5.125%

10 / 1 ARM
7 / 1 Arm 5.375% 5.750%
5 / 1 Arm 5.125% 5.375%
3 / 1 Arm 4.250% 4.875%

1 Year ARM Quote by phone due to volatile price swings.

Primary and Quasi Primary Market - FOR SELF EMPLOYED BORROWERS


Start Rate Accrual Rate

Savings Account rate tied loans 1.950% 5.50%

COFI Start / Accrue 2.250% 5.557%

LIBOR 2.200% 4.230%

Roger's Radio Schedule - Listen Live Over The Net

Monday-Friday 11AM-Noon eastern Time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE at www.TFNN.com

Sunday 8-10 AM eastern time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE www.BusinessTalkRadio.net

Monday 3:00 - 4:00 PM eastern time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Monday 4:30 - 4:45 PM eastern time; The Tom O'Brien Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Thursday 5:30 - 5:45 PM easten time; The Tom O'Brien Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Monday / Thursday 10:12 AM eastern time to :20 after the hour LIVE www.KBNP.com

Listen Live Over The Net

www.TFNN.com www.BusinessTalkRadio.net www.KBNP.com www.KSBN.net

Radio Show Archives

Monday through Friday show http://www.tfnn.com/archived_shows.php

Sunday show http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekend_host/Archives/ra.shtml

Locate a station near you http://www.businesstalkradio.net/affiliates/our_affiliates.shtml

Daily Observations Archives http://lists.sparklist.com/scripts/lyris.pl?visit=roger_arnold





Daily Observations July 22, 2003

Truth or Dare: The Lose Lose Scenario for the Republican Party

This is a reprint of the Daily Observations from November 7, 2002. Just something to think about.

The republican win in congress is a reactive mandate by the people. It is a vote against the probable attempt at tax hikes by the democrats; and that is good. A choice of the lesser of two evils. But I do not believe it was a vote for reality. Reality being the acceptance by voters of inevitable economic pain that can not be stopped by fiscal policy and the debt bubble must be burst. I will explain.

The republican party has been given enough rope to build a bridge across this economic slow down OR to hang themselves.

Building a bridge is hard. It requires leadership as well subordination of individual goals to the greater good. I don't believe that is likely to occur. The most probable political outcome will be to hang themselves. That is the nature of politics.

I do not say that lightly or because I prefer the democratic party over the republican party. It is simply reality.

When I was taking my securities licensing exams several years ago I had an instructor whom told me something that rang so true and offered so much clarity with respect to government regulation and politics that I have never forgotten it. He said, in all seriousness, if you get to a question on the exam concerning government regulation and you can't recall the answer choose the answer where not only does nobody win but offers the worst possible outcome for all parties involved; the proverbial lose lose scenario. His insight into the mechanics of government and politics is accurate.

One of our primary messages this year in the DO's has been that monetary policy can not supersede the business cycle. So far this has been proven accurate. The fed has used monetary policy to continue to increase money supply and lower the cost of money during the past 2 years. It hasn't stopped the economic slow down. As we have discussed why on several occasions I will not rehash here again.

However, these same rules apply to fiscal policy. Although the republicans have now been given a mandate to accelerate the income tax deductions planned for future years and even create new deductions for corporations the probability that fiscal policy will now pick up where monetary policy failed and induce a resurgence of economic activity is very low.

The reality of this situation however will not keep the republicans from attempting to do so.

Unfortunately, in my opinion, the most probable outcome of this will be to reduce the rate of slowing of the economy but will not change its trajectory. This reduction in the rate of slowing also raises the probability that the economy will be in an even worse situation in 2004 than it is today.

Just as monetary stimulus forced consumer spending up over the past year and precluded the bottoming of the economy the same I believe will now occur with fiscal stimulus. The democrats need do nothing more than sit back and watch the republicans struggle with a problem that has no politically acceptable response and then capitalize on it in 2004. I believe this may very well become a lose lose scenario for the republican party.

If fiscal stimulus postpones the slow down but does not act as the catalyst to reverse it and the economy has stagnated in 2004 the republicans will get decimated in the next presidential elections.

Now, don't get me wrong. I am not advocating a democratic party response to this economic slow down.

That party would have followed Germany's lead and increased taxes. That not only would not have alleviated the economic problem of the US but would have resulted in even greater, deeper and longer damage.

Now it is not impossible for the republicans to pull this off but it will be very difficult. The tax cuts need to be deep and targeted almost exclusively for primarily domestic small business. International firms will face backlash and counter productive protectionist responses from Europe and Asia if their taxes are cut; which is bad.

Consumer tax cuts will again allow large inefficient companies the opportunity to continue to operate when they should be allowed to die. The key and backbone of the US Economy is the small business and that is where the majority of the tax cuts need to be made.


Credit Spreads

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=sp/Page/IndicesCreditPg&r;=1&b;=4&s;=4&ig;=56&i;=

PAR Mortgage Rates

SPECIAL LOAN STILL AVAILABLE! requires agreement not to refinance for 3 years

The 30 year fixed at 4.75% and 15 year fixed at 4.60% for loans between $150,000 and $322,700

The 30 year fixed at 4.95% and 15 year fixed at 4.85% for loans between $322,701 and $500,000

Roger's Radio Schedule - Listen Live Over The Net

Monday-Friday 11AM-Noon eastern Time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE at www.TFNN.com

Sunday 8-10 AM eastern time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE www.BusinessTalkRadio.net

Monday 3:00 - 4:00 PM eastern time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Monday 4:30 - 4:45 PM eastern time; The Tom O'Brien Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Thursday 5:30 - 5:45 PM easten time; The Tom O'Brien Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Monday / Thursday 10:12 AM eastern time to :20 after the hour LIVE www.KBNP.com

Listen Live Over The Net

www.TFNN.com www.BusinessTalkRadio.net www.KBNP.com www.KSBN.net

Radio Show Archives

Monday through Friday show http://www.tfnn.com/archived_shows.php

Sunday show http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekend_host/Archives/ra.shtml

Locate a station near you http://www.businesstalkradio.net/affiliates/our_affiliates.shtml

Daily Observations Archives http://lists.sparklist.com/scripts/lyris.pl?visit=roger_arnold


Daily Observations July 10, 2003 The following article was originally published in the Daily Observations on February 14, 2002 and is also on the front page of www.myhomelender.com
Pay special attention to the section on stock as a currency. I believe what we are witnessing today is stock trading as a currency, with no correlation to the underlying fundamentals to the economy or even the company. In other words stocks are trading as currencies and are reflecting the reactive move away from paper currencies all over the world; NOT reflecting positive, proactive anticipation of increasing economic activity or company specific potential.

The Fed, the Constitution, derivatives and Enron
The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.

This is not exactly accurate. The Federal Reserve Board was created by a group of bankers; who in turn lobbied congress to adopt their central banking model through the passage of legislation, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

Since then a debate has raged as to whether or not the creation of the Fed was legal or Constitutional. My concern is not whether or not a central bank is constitutionally disallowed to exist; it clearly isn't. Rather my concern is under what conditions it may exist and the due process of its creation. And further, whether or not it has succeeded in its goal as stated above.

I do not believe that the conditions for existence or process of creation of the central bank of the United States were legal or constitutional. Further the Fed has failed to accomplish its goal as stated above.

So why do we still have this Fed?

The Federal Reserve is a private organization. It is made up of 12 federal reserve districts; each having its own bank. Each of these banks is owned by its stockholders, member banks. The Federal Reserve is not a public institution. It is not owned by the Federal government or the tax payers of the United States. It is private. Just like most other private companies in the U.S.

A legal argument against this Fed's creation

The creation of the Federal Reserve resulted in the transfer of value without consideration.
In other words, Congress transferred control of the supply of money to the U.S. economy from the public sector to the private sector without getting something in return. In my opinion, this makes the process of creation illegal, without due process, and should result in the rescission of the Act.

transˇfer
v. transˇferred, transˇferˇring, transˇfers

1. Law. To make over the possession or legal title of; convey. n. (trnsfr)
2. Also transferal Law. A conveyance of title or property from one person to another.


Notice I am not saying a central bank is disallowed; only that the process through which this one was created was illegal. Simply because no transfer of value was completed. The owners of the Federal Reserve received something of substantial public value without paying for it. That in itself should nullify the Feds existence.

Further, since there was no transfer of value to the U.S. tax payer from the Federal Reserve, the transfer must then be considered to be a Federal tax absorbed by the U.S. taxpayer. The problem with that argument is that the law that would have allowed for that argument was the creation of the IRS. The problem is that the IRS, the federal taxation law, did not occur until 1915, 2 years after the creation of the Fed. Congress could not constitutionally create the Fed and then 2 years later create the law that allows them to create the Fed. Talk about putting the cart before the horse.

The Constitutional argument against this Fed's creation:

The Constitutional argument against the Fed's existence typically has been that it violated clause 5 of section 8 of the U.S. Constitution. (see below) And it did and does.

Section. 8.
Clause 1: The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

Clause 5: To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;
As a matter of fact, the specific purpose of the Federal Reserve is to "regulate the Value thereof" of money.

Quote again "The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system."

Note to the Fed supporters and U.S. Investors

The supporters of the Fed have contended that the Fed doesn't actually coin money and that because of that it is not unconstitutional. The point irrelevant as it is based on a difference without a distinction. The Fed "regulates the value thereof" by regulating the supply of money and thus is in direct violation of the U.S. constitution.

The Fed, derivatives and Enron

The first universally accepted, modern, western world currency was gold. The first derivative of this was the introduction of gold backed dollar. The gold-backed U.S. dollar was replaced with the gold backed U.S. Federal Reserve Note in 1913. Which in turn was replaced again in 1933 with the non-gold backed Federal Reserve Note; which in essence is what we transact business with today.

Take out your wallet and look at your money. They are not dollar bills. There is no longer any such paper currency or fixed concept of value known as a dollar bill. We carry and transact business with Federal Reserve Notes which represent the concept of dollar bill. The concept of dollar however, also carries no value other than which people perceive it to have; since the U.S. was taken off of the gold standard in 1933.

So a Federal Reserve note represents a U.S. dollar which in turn only has the value that investors perceive it to have. There is no tangible backing to any of them. When gold was replaced by the gold backed dollar we created a fixed derivative. When the gold-backed dollar was replaced with the gold backed Federal Reserve Note what we actually did was create a derivative 2 times removed. When that currency was then replaced with the non-gold backed Federal Reserve Note we created a derivative 3 times removed from the original "store of value" known as the gold backed U.S. dollar

Remember the daily quiz in our newsletter from a week or 2 ago wherein we asked what are the 3 functions of money? Go back and check it out.

Think of it this way: Take a Rembrandt painting and copy it on a Xerox machine. Then take the copy and copy it. Then do it again. Then put the copy of the copy of the copy up for sale and see what you get. Which of these 4 has the most value? It's not rocket science. Every time a new derivative level is introduced it dilutes the real value further.

So, before we get to trading dollars for stocks and bonds; which are just another derivative, we are already 4 derivative placements removed from gold.

Companies then "copy the copy" again by issuing stock which they trade for dollars. Stock is a company-specific "currency" that also floats in value on the open market and is dependent upon how much stock the company has printed. This is exactly what Enron did with their "currency" or stock and what every company does. So now we have created a derivative 5 times removed from the original, which is gold.

Enron then issued special stock, backed by their common stock and placed these in partnerships which in turn swapped those "derivatives" for dollars again. We are now 6 derivative positions removed from the gold standard.

Are you beginning to see the pattern? The problem with floating exchange rates? The moral hazard that it virtually guarantees? Can you understand why the Enron executives believe they did nothing wrong? After all they are only doing what Woodrow Wilson did in 1913 and FDR in 1933 and Mr. Greenspan and Mr. O'Neill continue to do today

The entire concept of a dollar is a Ponzi scheme. The entire concept of floating currency exchange rates is a Ponzi scheme. The way to accomplish them was to violate the U.S. Constitution in 1913 and create the Fed. The true beginning of the Enron affair.
The central banks around the world have printed more money than can be supported with "value." Companies have then borrowed even further out depreciating currency valuations further. Beyond that, companies have manipulated earnings to a point of absurdity.

An argument against this Fed's continued existence

Again the Fed's stated goal: The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.

The Fed was supposed to have decreased the near term volatility of the business or economic cycle and increase the long term growth rate of the economy as a result. In fact, there have been just as many boom and bust cycles since before the creation of the Fed and fall into 2 categories; 1) normal business cycles and 2) monetary mismanagement.

Before the Fed's creation we only had normal business cycles. And the Fed itself has maintained for years and continues to maintain that monetary policy can not supercede the business cycle. Well, the whole point in creating the Fed was that they could supercede the business cycle, at least at the margin.

As a matter of fact not only has the Fed failed to achieve its stated goal after 89 years but we have experienced a substantial reduction in long term growth rates during the course of the twentieth century that can be directly attributed to recessionary environments born out of monetary mismanagement. In other words we are in worse shape economically with the Fed than we were without it.
Further, as late as just a couple of months ago Mr. Greenspan himself said that monetary policy (what the fed controls, the supply of money) can not supersede the business cycle.

Well, the fundamental purpose for the creation of the Fed was that it could supersede the business cycle.

There is much more that needs to be said and that I could write. Think about what has been presented here. We will expand on it in the future. For those of you who can not extrapolate what this means for the future, the answer is simple.

The entire ponzi scheme that allows this system of derivatives on derivatives is predicated on the fact that the concept of the U.S. dollar has value. That assumption is being drawn into question right now. Investors are looking behind the curtain and realizing the emperor has clothes.
The entire world wide economic system is a con (confidence) game that can only work if the cost of goods and services is steadily inflating over time. If that steady inflation is interrupted the system collapses. This process has already begun and is beginning to unravel all over the world.

Disregard this warning at your own expense.


Credit Spreads

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=sp/Page/IndicesCreditPg&r;=1&b;=4&s;=4&ig;=56&i;=

PAR Mortgage Rates

SPECIAL LOAN STILL AVAILABLE! requires agreement not to refinance for 3 years

The 30 year fixed at 4.75% and 15 year fixed at 4.60% for loans between $150,000 and $322,700

The 30 year fixed at 4.95% and 15 year fixed at 4.85% for loans between $322,701 and $500,000

45 Day Lock Pricing - minimum loan amount $150,000

The Break Even Rate is the rate from which you should refinance now. If your rate is at or above the Break Even rate you should call me immediatley to determine whether or not you should refinance at 1 800 658 2813.

Conforming Break Even Jumbo Break Even
Secondary Market $322,700 or less $322,701 or more

30 Year Fixed 5.625% 6.875% 5.750% 6.875%
20 Year Fixed 5.625% 6.875%
15 Year Fixed 4.875% 6.500% 5.125% 6.625%
10 Year Fixed 4.625% 6.375%

10 / 1 ARM 4.625%
7 / 1 Arm 4.625% 6.125% 5.000%
5 / 1 Arm 4.250% 4.625%
3 / 1 Arm 3.625% 4.250%
1 Year ARM Quote by phone due to volatile price swings.

Primary and Quasi Primary Market - FOR SELF EMPLOYED BORROWERS

COFI Start / Accrue 2.250% / 5.557%

LIBOR 2.200% / 4.230%

Roger's Radio Schedule - Listen Live Over The Net

Monday-Friday 11AM-Noon eastern Time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE at www.TFNN.com

Sunday 8-10 AM eastern time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE www.BusinessTalkRadio.net

Monday 3:00 - 4:00 PM eastern time; The Roger Arnold Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Monday 4:30 - 4:45 PM eastern time; The Tom O'Brien Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Thursday 5:30 - 5:45 PM easten time; The Tom O'Brien Show LIVE www.TFNN.com Monday / Thursday 10:12 AM eastern time to :20 after the hour LIVE www.KBNP.com

Listen Live Over The Net

www.TFNN.com www.BusinessTalkRadio.net www.KBNP.com www.KSBN.net

Radio Show Archives

Monday through Friday show http://www.tfnn.com/archived_shows.php

Sunday show http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekend_host/Archives/ra.shtml

Locate a station near you http://www.businesstalkradio.net/affiliates/our_affiliates.shtml

Daily Observations Archives http://lists.sparklist.com/scripts/lyris.pl?visit=roger_arnold





       
 
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